Impact of persistent bad returns and volatility on retirement outcomes

We examine wealth outcomes and risk of ruin faced by retirees due to persistent bad returns and high volatility in equity markets occurring at different stages of their retirement. Our results show poor equity returns persisting over long periods can put retirement security to serious risk but volatile market conditions actually have the opposite impact. The timing of such persistent bad returns and volatility (early or late stages of retirement) is critical and has differing effects on retirement outcomes. The results are robust to varying portfolio allocations to equities although the precise impacts are different.