Path dependency and contingent causation in policy adoption and land use plans: The case of Southeastern Peru

This study evaluates the importance of landholder adoption of land use incentives tied to public policies for subsequent land use plans in the Southeastern Peruvian Amazon. We draw on established theoretical frameworks that highlight public policies as distant determinants and landholder characteristics as proximate determinants of land use. We focus on whether landholders who had previously adopted specific land use incentives have different land use plans. This approach affords testing for path dependencies in land use trajectories from past policy adoption that results in specific land uses, later making expansion of those land uses more likely, as opposed to contingent causation, where past policy adoption does not influence later land use plans. We present results of multivariate statistical analyses based on farm surveys with data on adoption of past policies and future land use plans. Findings confirm instances of path dependency as well as cases of contingent causation among different types of land uses.