Complexity theory, spatial simulation models, and land use dynamics in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon

A LULC change scenario is examined by comparing model outcomes generated for a base CA model and an alternative CA model to explore the effects of increases in household income on land use change patterns at the farm level, achieved as a consequence of improved geographic accessibility to roads and communities and increased off-farm employment as a household livelihood strategy. Growth or transitions rules in our CA model, as well as neighborhood associations are sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors of households, resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility, and the uncertainty associated with peasant farming in a frontier setting. Model outcomes indicate that increases in household income are associated with more land in pasture and more land being cultivated for crops as a result of greater access to agricultural markets. In addition, more land in secondary forest succession occurs as a consequence of greater access to roads and communities, thereby, affording a better opportunity for off-farm employment and greater levels of household income.