Fiscal cost to exit quantitative easing: the case of Japan

This paper simulates the cash flows and balance sheet of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) before and after the end of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) under various scenarios. The simulations show that the BoJ will record significant accounting losses after the end of QQE, because the yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) acquired during QQE will be lower than the interest rate on excess reserves after the end of QQE. These losses are fiscal costs for the consolidated Japanese government, as they correspond to increased interest expenses to the public. The extent of the BoJ's accounting losses depends crucially on the duration of QQE and the interest-rate elasticity of banknote demand.