Preestablished harmony: The Japanese government's demand for Japanese government bonds

The Japanese government is heavily indebted but the yield on the Japanese government bond (JBG) remains low to date. We hypothesize that the presence of the Japanese government as a large stable investor of JGBs exerted a stabilizing influence on private JGB traders and thus rendered the risk premium for sovereign default negligible. To identify the influence of a large stable JGB holder, we utilize a surprise change in the policy stance toward public debt holding as a quasi-experiment. We estimated a VARMA model using daily data and found that an announced government withdrawal led to a 50-basis-point increase in the yields of 10-year JGBs. Our study suggests that large public debt holding reduces the risk premium and is one factor behind the low yield.

► The Japanese public sector holds 45.7 percent of outstanding public debts in 2008. ► The large public holding of public debts reduces the sovereign risk premium. ► A large stable holding prevents the coordination problem faced by investors.