Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: Early warning

► Explore causes and outcomes of 2008 crisis with Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause model. ► Includes over sixty potential causes of the crisis in 107 country sample. ► Unable to link most of the commonly cited causes of the crisis to its incidence across countries. ► Raises doubt about potential accuracy of “early warning” systems for financial crises. ► Early warning models must also predict timing of crises, which is even more difficult.