Consumer confidence and economic stagnation in Japan

This paper examines whether self-fulfilling expectations could have been the cause of the economic stagnation experienced by Japan in the 1990s. A real business cycle model with indeterminacy of equilibria and variable capital utilization is used to simulate the economy of Japan. Driven solely by expectation shocks, the model can replicate the economic bubble that occurred in the late 1980s and the prolonged slowdown that occurred in the 1990s. These results suggest that expectations should not be excluded as a possible source of Japan's recent economic difficulties.