The development of manufacturing: Unintended consequence

Structural change has taken divergent paths in India and Bangladesh. Using a dual economy perspective it is hypothesized that structural change is related to the intersectoral terms of trade. That is, the share of manufacturing in the economy falls as the price of agricultural goods rises relative to that for manufacturing and vice versa. This hypothesis is tested using data from the two countries and is found to be valid. Further, the differing movement in the intersectoral terms of trade in the two countries is found to be related to the type of policy followed (especially with respect to agriculture).