Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: East Asia versus Europe

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the relationship between trade intensities and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia and Europe (EU-15). It extends the work of Shin and Wang (2004, 2005) by providing a comparative perspective between East Asia and Europe. The paper finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor in explaining business cycle co-movements in both regions. The paper also supports the hypothesis that the relationship between trade intensity and output co-movement is stronger in East Asia than in Europe. The major policy implication of this finding is that East Asia needs to further strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination within the region.