The determinants of U.S. banks' international activities

This paper develops a model and structural dynamic estimation of bank behavior to map the relationship between U.S. banks' choices of foreign banking activities, and bank and foreign market traits. This estimation framework is applied to a unique bank-level dataset compiled from regulatory sources, covering U.S. banks' foreign activities in 83 host markets over the 2003-2013 period. Bank traits are better able to explain the evolving patterns of foreign banking than host market characteristics. After controlling for these traits, the post-financial crisis period shows a structural shift away from cross-border claims towards foreign affiliate activities. Structural estimates of foreign market entry costs and regulatory attitudes towards risk are derived. Simulation exercises confirm the strong impact of banks' and regulators' risk stance on bank profits and portfolio composition.