Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
5091266 Journal of Banking & Finance 2006 31 Pages PDF
Abstract
We show that exposure to foreign currency debt does not necessarily increase the risk of having a financial crisis. Some countries do not suffer from financial fragility despite original sin. Before 1913 British offshoots and Scandinavia afflicted with it avoided financial meltdowns. Today many advanced countries have original sin, but few have had crises. In both periods, aggregate balance sheet mismatches are associated with a greater likelihood of a crisis. The evidence suggests that foreign currency debt is dangerous when mis-managed. This is part of the difference between developed countries and emerging markets both of which borrow in foreign currency.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities Economics, Econometrics and Finance Economics and Econometrics
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