Forecasting peak-day consumption for year-ahead management of natural gas networks

Security of supply is at the forefront of energy policy in the EU and elsewhere. This paper develops a methodology to forecast peak-day gas consumption for the consideration of gas transmission system operators. It is developed for the domestic and small-to-medium enterprise (SME) gas market, based on a review of current practice. From this assessment, a climate-adjusted network degree day (NDDCA) variable is developed to estimate the weather-dependent gas consumption of such markets. We show that solar radiation significantly affects gas consumption and should be considered in consumption models. The study also quantifies the difference in capacity required under alternative gas supply standards.