How are risks generated, developed and amplified? Case study of the crowd collapse at Shanghai Bund on 31 December 2014

The crowd collapse that took place in Chen Yi Plaza in the Shanghai Bund on 31 December 2014 claimed 36 lives and generated strong social ripple effects in China. Using the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), we analyze the roles played by various social groups and individuals during the exit transition following the disaster and investigate how risk information was attenuated, both intentionally and unintentionally, during the entry transition process. It was found that the overarching roles played by the government, specifically their spontaneous, uninformed and unilateral behaviors, are generally the main reason for the generation and evolution of risks, which can then easily be amplified by the media and public under the influence of cultural and commercial mindsets. Managing the sources that generate risks can be a crucial way to reduce the possibility of disasters in modern social risk management.