Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal

•Develop a profit estimation model for container shipping with transshipment.•Construct a cost estimation model for port-to-port oil shipping.•Compare shipping efficiency of Northern Sea Route and conventional route via the Suez.•Incorporate latest operational data and traffic data into models.

The continuous retreat of Arctic sea ice and seemingly appealing cost competitiveness of transarctic shipping routes are expected to boost shipping activities in the region. However, in reality, the number of Arctic transits remains meagre compared with major shipping routes. This study first develops a profit estimation model for containership sailing from an original port to a destination port with multiple port calls and a cost estimation model for oil tanker sailing from an origin port to a destination port. The authors then proceed to compare the shipping efficiency between the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal by using the developed models and real shipping operational data. The results demonstrate that NSR shipping is not economically favored compared to traditional one in container shipping, but may be only appealing to small or medium-size tanker operators.