Towards the sustainable development of the regional phosphorus resources industry in China: A system dynamics approach

•A system dynamic model of the regional phosphorus resource industry was developed.•Market, governmental, environmental, and social regulation mechanisms are proposed.•Resource productivity and ecological efficiency are introduced.•The service life of phosphate rock is significantly prolonged via the transformation mode.

The explosive growth of the phosphorus resources industry in China has led to a series of problems (e.g., resource depletion, market supply and demand imbalances and environmental pollution). It is necessary to analyze the bottleneck in the development of the phosphorus resources industry under traditional modes and to suggest new directions for development. Therefore, this paper presents a system dynamics model based on the state of the regional phosphorus resources industry that focuses on resource, industrial, economic, environmental and social subsystems. Furthermore, by focusing on and quantitatively expressing the tailings recovery and resource reuse module, market regulation and elimination mechanism structures, governmental support and environmental constraints of game structures, and feedback structures between social innovation and industrial production, we construct a transformation mode as a development strategy for the phosphorus resources industry. The results demonstrate that the service life of phosphate rock under the transformation mode can be extended by 31 years. Compared to the 2014 levels, the resource productivity and ecological efficiency levels achieved can be increased by 2-fold and 2.5-fold in 2025, respectively. In addition, the social satisfaction levels can rise by roughly 50% under the transformation mode. Thus, the model can be used to assess the effects of various policies and to support decision making on development and environmental protection strategies.