Carbon emissions performance regulation for China's top generation groups by 2020: Too challenging to realize?

•Analyze the CO2 performance of China's Top Five generators into 2020.•With the exception of SPIC, Top Five can't reach the 550 g/kWh target.•Heavy reliance on coal implies a flexible compliance strategy.•Propose policy for better implementation of this new regulation.

Abatement of Greenhouse gas emissions is the top concern of global climate change policy. On November 4, 2016, the day when the Paris Agreements took effect officially, the State Council of China issued the Work Plan for the Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions during the 13th Five-Year Period as its national policy for climate change. An important regulation is the carbon dioxide emission performance for key power generation groups, i.e. carbon dioxide emissions for power supply within 550 g/kWh by 2020. The Top five state-owned generation groups (Top Five hereafter), namely China Huaneng Group, China Guodian Corporation, China Huadian Corporation, China Datang Corporation and State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC), produce more than 40% of electricity in China and hold critical role in the compliance to this new regulation. This paper estimates the CO2 emissions performance of Top five by 2020 with best available data. We find that with the exception of SPIC the rest four can't reach the target under their established clean energy development strategies. Carbon lock-in renders China's power generation utilities unable to make timely adjustment in their development trajectory and reach the performance target within five years. The paper concludes with policy implications on how to better implement this regulation.