Space-time variability analysis of poverty alleviation performance in China's poverty-stricken areas

China has achieved significant achievements in poverty reduction since the launch of its reform and opening policy in 1978. The rural poor population decreased by nearly 67 million from 2010 to 2012. Analysing and understanding the spatio-temporal variation of poverty alleviation performance in contiguous poverty-stricken regions can provide a reference for Chinese policymakers. In this paper, based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we build an evaluation index system of poverty alleviation performance and then establish a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to explore the space-time variability of poverty alleviation performance in poor areas. The spatial distribution indicates the eastern region's higher performance in poverty alleviation compared to the western region. The spatial-temporal feature shows that the increasing trend of poverty alleviation performance presents a pattern of “high in the central, low in the east-west” and most poor counties' development of poverty alleviation performance are consistent with overall trend. These findings suggest that the government could pay more attention to the development in the western region and vigorously carry out precise poverty alleviation measures.