Real estate development in anticipation of the Green Line light rail transit in St. Paul

•LRT impacts on building permits occur at the planning stage.•The funding announcement of LRT increases building activity.•The preliminary engineering announcement has no positive impacts.•Proactive planning for LRT helps stimulate building activity.

Although previous studies have extensively explored the impacts of rail transit on economic development after its opening, few have examined its impact on real estate development before its opening. Using the building permit data of the city of St. Paul, this study investigates the effects of key announcements of the Green Line light rail transit (LRT) by employing location quotient analysis and difference-in-difference models to compare building activity in the LRT corridor and control corridors. We found that the announcement of preliminary engineering had no positive impacts on the count and value of building permits whereas the announcement of Full Funding Grant Agreement tended to increase the number of building permit by about 24% and the value by 80%. We concluded that LRT investment, in conjunction with proactive land use planning policies, public subsidies and public funded projects, increases building activity.