Measuring the expected locational accessibility of urban transit network for commuting trips

•The expected locational accessibility (ELA) of transit network is defined.•The sample-test-statistics and topological analysis methods for the ELA are presented.•The ELA is computed in the probabilistic framework.

This paper focuses on measuring of the expected locational accessibility (ELA) of urban transit networks for commuters. The ELA of the transit network is measured by a factor named expected locational accessibility index (ELAI), which is calculated based on the expected number of reachable stations with different times of transfers (ENRST) starting from any one transit station on the network. Two approaches, the sample-test-statistics method and the topological analysis method for determining the ENRST are proposed and tested with an example transit network. Finally, the proposed methods are applied to an empirical study for evaluating the ELA performance of bus transit network for commuters of Xiamen City, China. The empirical results show that the ELAI obtained by our two methods are relatively smaller than those obtained by the existing methods. The reason is analyzed to guarantee the accuracy of ELAI measurement.