Projected pathways and environmental impact of China's electrified passenger vehicles

•PEVs can significantly reduce the LDV fleet's energy demand and GHG emissions.•We developed two models and six scenarios for EV penetration and renewables adoption.•We built micro-BEV into the model and evaluated its energy and emissions impact.•Expanding PEV penetration can happen faster and to greater extent than greening the grid.•Aggressive EV and more-RE scenarios can help reverse China's rising CO2 trajectory by 2030.

China's rapidly rising number of light-duty vehicles (LDVs) on the road is resulting in serious environmental, energy security, and health problems. This paper examines how electrified vehicles (EVs) can help reduce China's energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the future. Here EVs include hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and battery electric vehicle (BEV). First, this study uses an Electricity Supply and Emissions Model to forecast the GHG emissions intensity factors of China's electric grid under three renewable generation adoption scenarios. Then, it uses a China FLEET model to project the stock, energy demand, and GHG emissions of the LDV fleet for different scenarios out to 2050.Results show that there is significant potential for electrification to reduce the energy demand, oil dependence, and GHG emissions of the LDV fleet, because of the high efficiency of EVs, and especially BEVs. Compared to growing the renewable energy contribution to the electricity supply system, expanding EVs in the fleet can occur faster, provided that they become more attractive relative to conventional gasoline vehicles. To help China reverse the rising trajectory of CO2 emissions by 2030, the aggressive EV scenario and the more-renewables electricity scenario will likely be needed.