Article ID Journal Published Year Pages File Type
5129976 Statistics & Probability Letters 2017 5 Pages PDF
Abstract

We consider an approach to credit risk in which the information about the time of bankruptcy is modelled using a Brownian bridge that starts at zero and is conditioned to equal zero when the default occurs. This raises the question whether the default can be foreseen by observing the evolution of the bridge process. Unlike in most standard models for credit risk, we allow the distribution of the default time to be singular. Using a well known fact from parabolic potential theory, we provide a sufficient condition for its predictability.

Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering Mathematics Statistics and Probability
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