A predictive model for risk assessment on imminent bird strikes on airport areas

Wildlife hazard assessment (WHA) is a compulsory procedure on every significant international airport. With the appearance and integration of avian radar systems, the estimation of future bird tracks is possible, therefore the probability and severity of a bird strike can be assessed several minutes before that occurrence happens. Taking that into account, some mitigation procedures and actions could be implemented on airports in order to reduce the risk of the hazard. This work proposes a methodology for real-time evaluation of the risk assessment based on avian radar and aircraft data. This risk evaluation can trigger actions or procedures, within enough time, to significantly reduce the risk of a bird strike during critical flight phases. The risk estimation model combines the track of a bird and an aircraft (based on speed, altitude and heading), the proximity of the future crossing paths, the bird speed and mass, and the angle of impact. Simulation scenarios have been established to confirm if the mitigation actions could be implemented considering time of reaction, aircraft capabilities, and avian radar coverage. The proposed Risk Assessment method and mitigation actions to reduce the probability of a bird strike on aircrafts are a systematic and scientific approach to enhance flight safety on airports. This approach could be the basis for future mitigation protocols using more sophisticated actions in accordance with present and future technology.