Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5474066 | Ocean Engineering | 2017 | 12 Pages |
Abstract
International guidelines (IMO MSC.Circ 1533) specify that evacuation models used to certify evacuation performance of passenger ships must demonstrate that the calculated representative evacuation time, the sample 95th percentile time ÏS, is lower than a prescribed Pass/Fail Criterion Time (PFCT). In this paper a Confidence Interval Convergence Test (CICT) method is presented that minimises the computational burden required to demonstrate that a model design has passed/failed by calculating a CI for the population 95th percentile time, ÏP, rather than simply relying on ÏS determined from an arbitrary sample of 500 simulations as specified in the current guidelines. The CICT has comparable pass/fail accuracy to using 500 simulations whilst significantly reducing the number of simulations required when the PFCT is far from the ÏP. In addition, the proposed method has superior accuracy to the convergent method described in the IMO guidelines. Furthermore, the methodology described in the guidelines fails to identify situations where there may be uncertainty in the pass/fail status due to proximity of ÏP to PFCT. The CICT identifies these situations and provides a means of resolving the uncertainty. The CICT can be applied to any stochastic evacuation model to determine parameter convergence.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Engineering
Ocean Engineering
Authors
Angus Grandison, Steven Deere, Peter Lawrence, Edwin Richard Galea,