Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5475476 | Energy | 2017 | 56 Pages |
Abstract
This paper finds climate change scenarios anticipate a transition toward coal because of systematic errors in fossil production outlooks based on total geologic assessments like the LBE model. Such blind spots have distorted uncertainty ranges for long-run primary energy since the 1970s and continue to influence the levels of future climate change selected for the SSP-RCP scenario framework. Accounting for this bias indicates RCP8.5 and other 'business-as-usual scenarios' consistent with high CO2 forcing from vast future coal combustion are exceptionally unlikely. Therefore, SSP5-RCP8.5 should not be a priority for future scientific research or a benchmark for policy studies.
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Physical Sciences and Engineering
Energy
Energy (General)
Authors
Justin Ritchie, Hadi Dowlatabadi,