Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5476883 | Energy | 2017 | 11 Pages |
Abstract
This paper introduces a new approach for the forecasting of solar radiation series at 1Â h ahead. We investigated on several techniques of multiscale decomposition of clear sky index Kc data such as Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Wavelet Decomposition. From these differents methods, we built 11 decomposition components and 1 residu signal presenting different time scales. We performed classic forecasting models based on linear method (Autoregressive process AR) and a non linear method (Neural Network model). The choice of forecasting method is adaptative on the characteristic of each component. Hence, we proposed a modeling process which is built from a hybrid structure according to the defined flowchart. An analysis of predictive performances for solar forecasting from the different multiscale decompositions and forecast models is presented. From multiscale decomposition, the solar forecast accuracy is significantly improved, particularly using the wavelet decomposition method. Moreover, multistep forecasting with the proposed hybrid method resulted in additional improvement. For example, in terms of RMSE error, the obtained forecasting with the classical NN model is about 25.86%, this error decrease to 16.91% with the EMD-Hybrid Model, 14.06% with the EEMD-Hybid model and to 7.86% with the WD-Hybrid Model.
Keywords
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Energy
Energy (General)
Authors
Stéphanie Monjoly, Maïna André, Rudy Calif, Ted Soubdhan,