Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
5477933 | Nuclear Engineering and Technology | 2017 | 8 Pages |
Abstract
This paper presents a method for forecasting future uranium prices that is used as input data to calculate the uranium cost, which is a rational key cost driver of the nuclear fuel cycle cost. In other words, the statistical autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and existing engineering cost estimation method, the so-called escalation rate model, were subjected to a comparative analysis. When the uranium price was forecasted in 2015, the margin of error of the ARIMA model forecasting was calculated and found to be 5.4%, whereas the escalation rate model was found to have a margin of error of 7.32%. Thus, it was verified that the ARIMA model is more suitable than the escalation rate model at decreasing uncertainty in nuclear fuel cycle cost calculation.
Keywords
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Energy
Nuclear Energy and Engineering
Authors
Sungki Kim, Wonil Ko, Hyoon Nam, Chulmin Kim, Yanghon Chung, Sungsig Bang,