Factors influencing the market diffusion of bio-based plastics: Results of four comparative scenario analyses

The emerging bio-based economy is initiating a shift from fossil-based resources towards renewable resources. The use of biopolymers is seen as being a key component in sustainable product development. Research on biopolymers for bioplastics production mainly focuses on product development, environmental performance and cost-related aspects, and neglects the issue of bioplastic market diffusion. This paper aims at identifying the factors influencing the market diffusion of bioplastic by considering the four biopolymers: polylactic acid (PLA), polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA), lignin and cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL). Scenario techniques employing effects analysis and cross impact analysis are applied in the assessment. The effects analysis shows that the price of PLA and PHA is influenced by the process costs, whereas the prices of CNSL and lignin based novel bio-based plastic materials, are influenced by further technological innovations. The sales volume of all four biopolymers largely depends on the price as well as on marketing activities. The cross impact analysis identifies a range of possible outcomes. While a further price reduction and an increasing sales volume can be assumed likely in the case of PHA and lignin, the scenarios for PLA and CNSL are rather uncertain. The results provide insight into the possible impact of further price and sales volume developments in the bio-based plastic market.