Prospective analysis for a long-term optimal energy mix planning in Algeria: Towards high electricity generation security in 2062

Issues relating to the potential collapse of oil prices and possible consequences which are rising for all oil producing countries including OPEC countries (in which Algeria is a member). Since February 2011, a national renewable energy (RE) program was launched by the president of Algeria to make RE a major source of production for electrical energy which is a fundamental concept for sustainable development. A prospective analysis will be used to contribute in making a decision for such process. This article addresses the issue that explains the current and future energy scenarios in Algeria with the aim of investigating opportunities and possibilities for enhancing the presence of renewable energy resources in Algeria's Energy mix. This prospective is particularly suitable to the treatment of long-term technological energy issues in Algeria from an explicit representation of economic characteristics (represented by indicators: GDP, population and unemployment), and energetics (expressed by the aggregate of energy production, of total and final consumption) during the period 1962-2012. The developed approach can enrich the discussion of possible consequences of futures energy in the country. We focused on the consumer sectors of energy (Industrial, Transport and Household sector) and strategies to increase the contribution of renewable in the energy supply, in order to respond efficiently to national expectations as part of their energy and economic objectives. It should be noted that the present study offers three energy scenarios in Algeria from mid to long term. We suggest that the scenario " Trended Non Energetic Efficiency (EE) " could be a reference in the 10 coming years. Moreover, " Trended of EE " and " voluntarism of EE " are considered as transition scenarios in case that Algeria desires to improve its energy system on the horizon of 2062, a year taken as a reference to the 100 year jubilee of independence.