Cost of power or power of cost: A U.S. modeling perspective

While current cost and performance assumptions of electricity-generating technologies are key drivers of short-term technology deployment and technology mix in the electricity sector, medium- and long-term deployment pathways are significantly affected by assumed efficiency improvement rates and cost reductions. We develop and demonstrate a method to project efficiency and construction cost of power plants and report a sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of such assumptions in future scenarios generated by GCAM.