Recent techniques to model uncertainties in power generation from renewable energy sources and loads in microgrids - A review

Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind energies are associated with high degree of uncertainty due to climatic conditions. A proper modelling and analytical treatment of these uncertainties play a key role in taking operational and financial decisions by the microgrid operator. A number of models are proposed and tested successfully in literature to model these energy uncertainties. This article presents a survey of some of the latest analytical and approximation techniques reported in literature to model the uncertainties in microgrid environment. The article mainly focuses on the methods which are applied in particular to the study of uncertainties in Renewable energy availability, heat demand and load demand. Different models, their main features, relative merits and demerits, application in literature, etc are reviewed and presented in form of a table for a quick view. The review shows the inadequacy of uncertainty modelling methods applicable to Renewable sources, both in terms of number and accuracy. It also envisages the scope and need for more flexible models for specific applications.