Ranking ICME's efficiency for geomagnetic and ionospheric storms and risk of false alarms

A statistical analysis is undertaken on ICME's efficiency in producing the geomagnetic and ionospheric storms. The mutually-consistent thresholds for the intense, moderate and weak space weather storms and quiet conditions are introduced with an analytical model based on relations between the equatorial Dst index and geomagnetic indices AE, aa, ap, ap(τ) and the ionospheric Vσ indices. The ionosphere variability Vσ index is expressed in terms of the total electron content (TEC) deviation from the −15-day sliding median normalized by the standard deviation for the 15 preceding days. The intensity of global positive ionospheric storm, Vσp, and negative storm, Vσn, is represented by the relative density of anomalous ±Vσ index occurrence derived from the global ionospheric maps GIM-TEC for 1999-2016. An impact of total 421 ICME events for 1999-2016 on the geomagnetic and ionospheric storms expressed by AE, Dst, aa, ap, ap(τ), Vσp, Vσn indices and their superposition is analyzed using ICME catalogue by Richardson and Cane (2010) during 24 h after the ICME start time t0. Hierarchy of efficiency of ICME → storm relation is established. The ICMEs have a higher probability (22-25%) to be followed by the intense ionospheric and auroral electrojet storms at global and high latitudes as compared to the intense storms at middle and low latitudes (18-20%) and to moderate and weak storms at high latitudes (5-17%). At the same time ICMEs are more effective in producing the moderate storms (24-28%) at the middle and low latitudes as compared to the intense and weak storms at these latitudes (13-22%) and to moderate storms at high latitudes (8-17%). The remaining cases when quiet conditions are observed after ICMEs present higher chance for a false alarm. The risk factor for a false alarm can vary from 18% if the superposition of all indices is considered, to 51-64% for individual AE, Vσp and Vσn indices. The analysis indicates that the mutually-consistent thresholds can be successfully applied to the external sources of the geomagnetic and ionospheric storms other than ICME which present challenge for the further investigation.