Modelling of tetracycline resistance gene transfer by commensal Escherichia coli food isolates that survived in gastric fluid conditions

•Probabilistic exposure model was used to estimate antimicrobial resistance gene transfer in the human gut.•Acid resistance and kinetic behaviour of E. coli survival were analysed in gastric pH conditions.•Simulation results suggest that 22-33% of commensal E. coli can survive under gastric pH conditions of Koreans.•Estimated mean tet(A) transfer rate by commensal E. coli was 1.68 × 10-4-8.15 × 10-4 log CFU/mL/h.

Antimicrobial resistance (AR) is a major public health concern and a food safety issue worldwide. Escherichia coli strains, indicators of antibiotic resistance, are a source of horizontal gene transfer to other bacteria in the human intestinal system. A probabilistic exposure model was used to estimate the transfer of the AR gene tet(A). The acid resistance and kinetic behaviour of E. coli was analysed as a function of pH to describe the inactivation of E. coli in simulated gastric fluid (SGF), the major host barrier against exogenous micro-organisms. The kinetic parameters of microbial inactivation in SGF were estimated using GInaFiT, and log-linear + tail and Weibull models were found to be suitable for commensal and enterohaemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC), respectively. A probabilistic exposure model was developed to estimate E. coli survival in gastric pH conditions as well as gene transfer from resistant to susceptible cells in humans. E. coli-contaminated retail foods for consumption without further cooking and gastric pH data in South Korea were considered as an example. The model predicts that 22-33% of commensal E. coli can survive under gastric pH conditions of Koreans. The estimated total mean tet(A) transfer level by commensal E. coli was 1.68 × 10-4-8.15 × 10-4 log CFU/mL/h. The inactivation kinetic parameters of E. coli in SGF and the quantitative exposure model can provide useful information regarding risk management options to control the spread of AR.