Ex-ante assessment of the safety effects of intelligent transport systems

There is a need to develop a comprehensive framework for the safety assessment of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). This framework should: (1) cover all three dimensions of road safety—exposure, crash risk and consequence, (2) cover, in addition to the engineering effect, also the effects due to behavioural adaptation and (3) be compatible with the other aspects of state of the art road safety theories. A framework based on nine ITS safety mechanisms is proposed and discussed with regard to the requirements set to the framework. In order to illustrate the application of the framework in practice, the paper presents a method based on the framework and the results from applying that method for twelve intelligent vehicle systems in Europe. The framework is also compared to two recent frameworks applied in the safety assessment of intelligent vehicle safety systems.