Preoperative assessment of surgical risk: creation of a scoring tool to estimate 1-year mortality after emergency abdominal surgery in the elderly patient

•Elderly patients are at high risk for poor long-term outcomes after emergency surgery.•A scoring tool predicts 1-year mortality in elderly emergency surgery patients.•The score uses 5 clinical variables that are part of a standard preoperative workup.•Preoperative risk assessment improves the surgeon's ability to counsel patients.•Objective estimation of risk empowers patients to partake in decision-making.

BackgroundThe risk of mortality after emergency general surgery (EGS) in elderly patients is prolonged beyond initial hospitalization. Our objective was to develop a preoperative scoring tool to quantify risk of 1-year mortality.MethodsThree hundred ninety EGS patients aged 70 years or more were analyzed. Risk factors for 1-year mortality were identified using stepwise-forward logistic multivariate regression and weights assigned using natural logarithm of odds ratios. A geriatric emergency surgery mortality (GEM) score was derived from the aggregate of weighted scores. Leave-one-out cross-validation was performed.ResultsOne-year mortality was 32%. Risk factors and their weights were: acute kidney injury (2), American Society of Anesthesiology class greater than or equal to 4 (2), Charlson Comorbidity Index greater than or equal to 4 (1), albumin less than 3.5 mg/dL (1), and body mass index (less than 18.5 kg/m2 [1]; 18.5 to 29.9 kg/m2 [0]; ≥30 kg/m2 [−1]). One-year mortality was: GEM 0 to 1 (0% to 7%); GEM 2 to 5 (32% to 68%); GEM 6 to 8 (94% to 100%). C-statistics were .82 and .75 in training and validation data sets, respectively.ConclusionsA simple score using 5 clinical variables predicts 1-year mortality after EGS with reasonable accuracy and assists in preoperative counseling.