Do laboratory frontal crash test programs predict driver fatality risk? Evidence from within vehicle line variation in test ratings

A number of studies have examined whether the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) frontal crash test results reliably indicate the risk of fatality or injury in serious crashes. The conclusions of these studies are mixed. Generally, studies that examine crashes in the circumstances as close as possible to those of the laboratory test find that crash test results do predict real-world risk, but studies of crashes outside those specific circumstances find either no support for the predictive validity of crash test results or limited support with important inconsistencies. We provide a new test of the predictive validity of the crash test results using information from multiple crash tests within vehicle lines, thus controlling for systematic differences in driver behavior across vehicle lines. Among drivers of passenger cars, we find large, statistically significant differences in fatality risk for vehicles with one- to four-star NHTSA ratings versus a five-star rating. We also examine the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's frontal offset crash test, though our sample of vehicle lines tested twice or more is considerably smaller than for NHTSA ratings. Our results also support the predictive validity of the frontal offset crash test results for passenger cars, but not for trucks.