‘Low mileage bias’ and related policy implications—A cautionary note

This research examined a relationship asserted in recent literature in the field of traffic safety and injury prevention—that a significant indicator for elevated crash risk among older drivers, and potential trigger for individualized assessment at license renewal, is a low (<3000 km) annual driving distance. Sampling problems in earlier reports, in particular a reliance on self-report measures of both exposure and crash involvement, are highlighted. A pattern of misestimation for those who self-report an extremely low or extremely high number of miles driven is documented, that casts serious doubt upon the effect reported earlier. The present findings underscore the need for objective exposure measures for future analyses of this nature, and impact discussions about the feasibility of this suggested strategy to aid detection of at-risk older drivers by licensing officials.