Future projections of extreme precipitation intensity-duration-frequency curves for climate adaptation planning in New York State

One-hundred-year recurrence interval precipitation amounts exhibit a median increase of between 5 and 10% across the state in the 2010-2039 period regardless of greenhouse gas concentration. By the 2040-2069 period, the median increase is on the order of 10-20% for the high concentration case (RCP 8.5), but remains below 10% if concentrations are lower (RCP 4.5). At the end of the century, all downscaling method climate model combinations indicate increases, with a median change of between 20 and 30% in the case of high concentrations.