Modelling dispersal of radioactive contaminants in Arctic waters as a result of potential recovery operations on the dumped submarine K-27

•Potential dispersion of contaminants during operations related to a dumped nuclear submarine has been derived.•Widespread contamination of the Arctic marine environment is possible in the event of an accident.•For three release positions considered, there is little apparent difference regarding dominant oceanographic regimes.•On the Arctic-wide scale the nature of the release is potentially of more consequence than the location at which it occurs.

Of the wide variety of dumped objects containing radioactive materials in the Arctic seas, the submarine K-27 constitutes a major risk due to the large amount of highly enriched uranium onboard and its location in shallow waters. As the matter of potential operations involving raising of the submarine have entered the public arena, a priori assessment of the contamination in the Arctic marine environment that could result after a possible accident during such operations is a matter of some interest. The dispersion of contaminants within the Arctic has been assessed using a large scale hydrodynamic model for a series of plausible accident scenarios and locations under different oceanographic regimes. Results indicate that, depending primarily on the nature of a release (i.e. instantaneous or continuous), large areas of the Arctic marine environment will exhibit contamination to varying degrees.