A model study of the effects of river discharges and winds on hypoxia in summer in the Pearl River Estuary

The deterioration of dissolved oxygen conditions in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) in summer has recently attracted considerable-scientific and political-attention. This paper documents the development, calibration, and verification of a coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model for the PRE. A comparison of the model's performance against field observations indicated that the model is capable of reproducing key hydrodynamic and water quality characteristics of the estuary within an acceptable range of accuracy. Furthermore, a scenario analysis showed that the extent of the hypoxic zone responds differently to changes in the river discharge at different inlets. Moreover, the hypoxic zone also changes in response to variations in the southwest wind in summer; specifically, a larger hypoxic zone develops as southwest winds blow in a more southward direction. However, the hypoxic conditions are much more sensitive to changes in the wind speed than changes in the wind direction.