Uncertainty quantification of environmental performance metrics in heterogeneous aquifers with long-range correlations

•Quantified the uncertainty of environmental performance metrics (EPMs) for K-fields with long range correlation.•Identified the probability distribution function that best represents the statistics of the EPMs.•Investigated the impact of persistence/anti-persistence correlation of K on the EPMs relevant to risk analysis.•Long range correlations in the K-field have a strong impact on the uncertainty estimates of EPMs.

We investigate how the uncertainty stemming from disordered porous media that display long-range correlation in the hydraulic conductivity (K) field propagates to predictions of environmental performance metrics (EPMs). In this study, the EPMs are quantities that are of relevance to risk analysis and remediation, such as peak flux-averaged concentration, early and late arrival times among others. By using stochastic simulations, we quantify the uncertainty associated with the EPMs for a given disordered spatial structure of the K-field and identify the probability distribution function (PDF) model that best captures the statistics of the EPMs of interest. Results indicate that the probabilistic distribution of the EPMs considered in this study follows lognormal PDF. Finally, through the use of information theory, we reveal how the persistent/anti-persistent correlation structure of the K-field influences the EPMs and corresponding uncertainties.