Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations in the MJO skeleton model with observation-based forcing

•Show that a skeleton model for tropical intraseasonal variability is able to capture planetary-scale mean convective activity and convective variability.•Show that solutions to both a linear (deterministic) and nonlinear stochastic form of the model contain features of observed BSISO events.•Use observation-based estimates of forcing for the skeleton model.

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) skeleton model is a low-order model for intraseasonal oscillations that, in an extended form, includes off-equatorial and antisymmetric components. Previous studies of this extended model have used an idealized background state and forcing terms. In the current study, observation-based estimates of these forcing terms and background state are used. Linear solutions to the extended model with this observation-based forcing consist of both equatorially-symmetric convective events and events with a meridional tilt reminiscent of composites of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in observational studies. Solutions to a nonlinear stochastic form of the model exhibit realistic precipitation mean and variance and intraseasonal variability throughout much of the tropics. These solutions contain several types of events, including meridionally-tilted convective activity that moves both northward and eastward. Solutions to both forms of the model also indicate that this BSISO-like convective activity is coupled to activity over the eastern Pacific. A discussion of these features and their agreement with previous observational studies of the BSISO is given.