Determinants of southeast Ethiopia seasonal rainfall

The slower El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interacts with the faster Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), but both signals mature too late for direct use in statistical prediction of Sep-Nov rainfall. Composite differences of the upper divergent circulation exhibit a global wave-2 pattern consistent with satellite-observed convection. One key feature is a zonal gradient in upper velocity potential over the Indian Ocean corresponding with a zonal atmospheric circulation. One outcome of this research is useful forecasts of SE Ethiopia Sep-Nov rainfall that will assist in agricultural planning.