Simulating urban growth by emphasis on connective routes network (case study: Bojnourd city)

Development of urban construction and ever-increasing growth of population lead to landuse changes especially in agricultural lands, which play an important role in providing human food. According to this issue, a proper landuse planning is required to protecting and preserving the valuable agricultural lands and environment, in today's world. The prediction of urban growth can help in understanding the potential impacts on a region's water resource, economy and people. One of the effective parameters in development of cities is connective routes network and their different types and qualities that play an important role in decreasing or increasing the growth of the city. On the other hand, the type of the connective routes network is an important factor for the speed and quality of development. In this paper, two different scenarios were used to simulate landuse changes and analyzing their results. In first scenario, modeling is based on the effective parameters in urban growth without classification of connective routes network. In the second scenario, effective parameters in urban growth were considered and connective routes were classified in 6 different classes with different weights in order to examine their effect on urban development. Simulation of landuse has been carried out for 2020-2050. The results clearly showed the effect of the connective routes network classification in output maps so that the effect of the first and second main routes network in development, is conspicuous.