Urban growth models: progress and perspective

Urban growth models have been developed and extensively adopted to study urban expansion and its impact on the ambient environment. These models can be employed in urban policymaking or analyses of development scenarios. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of urban growth models, including the evolution of urban models and associated theories and the common framework of different models and their applications. Three typical classes of urban growth models, namely, the land use/transportation model, the cellular automata (CA) model and the agent-based model, were introduced. Their relationships were explained, considering their modelling mechanisms, data requirements and application scales. Based on the extensively utilized urban CA models, we proposed four perspectives for improvements, including the adjustment of the basic spatial unit, the incorporation of temporal contexts, public platforms to support model comparison, and scenario analyses. New opportunities (e.g., open social data and integrated assessment models) have emerged to assist model development and application.