A Novel Method to Value Real Options in Health Care: The Case of a Multicohort Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Strategy

The payoff method showed distinctive advantages in the valuation of the cost-effectiveness of competing health care interventions, essentially determined by the replacement of the nonfuzzy numbers that are commonly used in cost-effectiveness analysis models, with fuzzy numbers as an input to inform the real option pricing method. The real option approach to value uncertainty makes policy making in health care an evolutionary process and creates a new “space” for decision-making choices.