Prediction of occupational accident statistics and work time loss distributions using Bayesian analysis

This paper uses Bayesian analysis tools for the stochastic evaluation of work time losses due to occupational accidents in a workplace. Models are developed for accident frequencies, duration of recovery from an accident, and the worker unavailability. The unavailability statistics are hereby derived considering a two state stochastic model, to provide estimates for the expected work time losses over a base period of workplace operation. The above models are applied on real multiyear accident data collected from the Greek Petrochemical Industry.

► Bayesian analysis of occupational accident data. ► Prediction of work time loss due to recovering from occupational accidents, and related statistics. ► Two state Markov model for worker availability. ► Evidence from multiyear accident data collected from Petrochemical Industry.