Development of an integrated tool for risk analysis of drilling operations

Most risk analysis of drilling operations failed to distinguish and capture evolving risk during different stages of drilling operations. This paper presents a new integrated dynamic risk analysis methodology. This methodology comprises models applicable at different stages of drilling operations. These models capture evolving situations in terms of changes in the probability and consequences of unwanted scenario (unstable well condition). The dynamic consequence models are developed in terms of loss functions dependent on changing bottom-hole pressure during different stages of drilling operation. The proposed methodology is tested using real life case. It is observed that the proposed methodology help monitoring and maintaining well stability during different stages of drilling operations.