Fuzzy logic approach to calculation of thermal hazard distances in process industries

•A method that allows including uncertainties in the consequence modeling is proposed.•The method is based on the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty techniques.•Fuzzy sets and Monte Carlo techniques are chosen.•A case study concerning an LNG pool fire is presented to illustrate the proposed method.

In this paper, a general procedure to deal with uncertainties in each stage of consequence modeling is presented. In the first part of the procedure, the sources of uncertainty are identified and confirmed by sensitivity analysis for the source term, dispersion, physical effects and consequence analysis. While the second part comprises an application of the fuzzy logic system to each step of the consequence modeling. The proposed procedure is verified by the case study for a pool fire liquefied natural gas (LNG) on water. The results in terms of thermal radiation distances are compared with calculations obtained using the Monte Carlo method and with experimental data. The consequence model based on fuzzy logic approach provides less uncertain and more precise results in comparison to the deterministic consequence model.