Procollagen type 1 amino-terminal propeptide (P1NP) and risk of hip fractures in elderly Norwegian men and women. A NOREPOS study

•Possible association between procollagen type 1 amino-terminal propeptide (P1NP) and future hip fractures in elderly men and women was studied.•A negative correlation between P1NP and BMD was observed in women.•No association between quartiles of P1NP and rate of subsequent hip fractures was found.•Spline analyses suggested a J-shaped association between P1NP and hip fracture rate.

The current study aimed to assess a possible association between the bone turnover marker procollagen type 1 amino-terminal propeptide (P1NP) and future hip fractures in elderly Norwegian men and women and to elucidate the relation between P1NP, bone mineral density and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D). Men and women aged 71 to 77 from two population based health studies in Norway (1999-2001) were followed for a median period of 7.3 years with respect to hip fractures. The study was designed as a case-cohort study. P1NP and 25(OH)D were analysed in frozen serum samples obtained at baseline in hip fracture patients (n = 340) and in randomly selected sex stratified sub-cohorts. Bone mineral density was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) in a subset of participants. Cox proportional hazards regression with inverse probability weighting and robust variance was performed. No significant correlation between 25(OH)D and P1NP was found. A negative correlation between P1NP and BMD was observed in women (Rho = − 0.36, p = 0.001). A similar trend was observed in men. No association between quartiles of P1NP and rate of subsequent hip fractures was found. Spline analyses suggested a higher rate of hip fracture at P1NP levels above 60 μg/L in both men and women. A higher hip fracture rate, which was independent of BMD, was also indicated in women with very low levels of P1NP.