The value of rapid damage assessment for efficient earthquake response

Every year earthquakes cause substantial economic losses and loss of life in many parts of the world. Earth observations may provide valuable information on spatial damage distribution and through that increase the efficiency of rapid response actions, finally resulting in reduction of earthquake induced losses. However, a methodology for quantitative assessment of the potential value of information in such a context has not yet been developed. That knowledge would be of high importance for planning and development of Earth observation systems on both regional and international levels when aiming at sustainable development goals. In this paper we suggest a stochastic modeling approach to assess the value of information for earthquake rapid response. Our analysis is focused on a rather short time interval after an earthquake occurrence (order of several hours) when there is a maximum need for urgent help to the earthquake victims. We use rescue efficiency as a performance measure of earthquake response actions; this efficiency is described in terms of timely arrival of rescue teams at places, where their help is mostly needed. We quantify the benefit of using spatial damage distribution information in terms of cost reduction/rescue efficiency gains. We intentionally conduct our analysis at a methodological level and do not go deeper into case studies to keep general conclusions traceable. The modeling exercise we present in the paper is a first step towards a more detailed and integrated approach that could contribute to better systematic understanding of earthquake response actions and ultimately improve their efficiency.

► We develop a model of earthquake response to quantify the value of information. ► The stochastic modeling framework is studied through simulations. ► The cost-benefit analysis highlights the ‘system of systems’ effect. ► The quality of earth observations defines the limits of response efficiency.